"Siberian Express" & Trade Idea(s)

Greetings and Happy Holidays!

When I break out the "Crock Pot" I really have confirmed Winter has arrived.  Next week the "Siberian Express" will be ready to romp across the U.S.

I have been scaling into this trade for over (2) weeks now. I am using Renko Chart which I rely on daily. If you follow my posts on Twitter or Tradingview.com for longer than a cup of coffee, you know I am a huge fan of Renko Charts & a mechanical set up. 

Breakpointtrades.com is where I learned this simple Renko set up. Props to them & their research.

The real "rubber meets the road" on this trade by using $UNG and or $FCG. 

$UNG Daily Renko:

Went on a BUY Signal on 4/13/16 & pushed UP. Pulled back & put in a Higher Low.  Now set to pop through resistance ahead of the "Siberian Express".... (Click on chart to enlarge)

FCG Daily Renko:

Offered a nice Buy signal on 11/15/16. As I hunker down for foul weather. I will have most of my position(s) here. Still offers value & continues to "Stair Step" upward.

Early "Stocking Stuffers"

I hope everyone had a Thanksgiving filled with joy and laughter. 

I had one too many turkey sandwiches and plenty of great NFL football!

I have posted a list of stocks on the move with solid volume.

Stocks on the Move:

$AMD
$VALE
$AKS
$X
$NVDA
$MENT
$CLF
$GGB
$TCK
$EXEL
$OCLR

I checked each on the above on the Daily Renko chart. They all pasted "muster" and remain on Buy Signals.

Example below of $MENT. Please click on chart to enlarge. Thank you Tradingview.com for the great charts!

$MENT

BUY Rules:

1. Stoch. crosses above 20% Line? Check. 
2. Parabolic SAR switch? Check.
3. Brick crosoes above EMA7? Check.


Happy Holidays. 

Tech. Sector = Bullish

I have been tracking the $SMH as it's broken out of a Base & confirmed. Additionally, $SOX is very Bullish. Please click on chart & it will enlarge.

Last, the Tech. Sector the last 5 days has been the market leader.

Earnings Season

Here we go again!  Earnings Season begins on 4/11/16, Monday. Many will be waiting for $AA to announce for alleged guidance.

Here is an interesting read prior to Monday:

Link:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/08/earnings-tricks.asp

I am a trading fan of Price and Trend. You may want to tighten up the Moving Averages you use or focus on your most reliable Indicator.

This Earnings Season is suggested to be "weak". I suspect much of the "bad news" is already baked into price. So no need to panic here.

Our job is to manage risk.

Good luck.

200 Simple Moving Average Breached, So What...

Many traders will be laying in bed all weekend wondering about this SMA200 breach. Will it confirm? Will it reverse? Understandably so.

On a Daily chart the SMA200 is considered a key indicator by traders and analysis. It's utilized to determine the overall trend of the market. We all know, "Trend is Your Friend."

Tracking the last 40-weeks of trading, the SMA200 is used to determine the general market trend. If price remains above the SMA200 it's considered a Bullish Trend.

SMA200 has been breached (Green Arrow), so many will be waiting for confirmation on Monday.

I would prefer to see DMI above 20% Level to confirm this trend as well. ADX is Green & that's Bullish.

$SPY Daily Chart: (Thank you TradingView.com)

Tech. Ready to Explode

Spent too much time reviewing charts this weekend.  I focused on weekly charts to get a better feel for longer Swing Trades or even Buy & Holds.

I notice the Tech. Sector really looks ripe here for opportunity and on sale. Adding value.

SMH Weekly:

SMH got very "Depressed", recovered & then got the expected pullback.  Now Price is carving out the right side of a nice "W" Pattern. Fresno MACD Bullish Histo.

XLK Weekly:

XLK is the Tech. Sector ETF and helps confirm a Bullish Tech. Sector and on sale in the "Value Zone".

Have a nice weekend and check some Tech. Stock charts out. Please see $BIDU.

Cheers.

Bullish or Bearish?

Many Traders/Investors struggle in the volatility of this type of market, that we are currently experiencing. Up 250 points, down the next day 100 points. Where's the Trend? What's going on? Am I going to blow my account out? etc. etc.

Knowing the Trend is key. But, knowing if the market you are trading is truly technically Bullish or Bearish is very useful.

There is a simple, FREE, way to check thanks to StockCharts.com.

It's simply the PnF (Point and Figure), BP's or Bullish Percent Indices. Located at StockCharts.com. But, it's a bit tricky to locate.

See Charting Tools in right margin. Click on "More Tools...". Click on "Market Summary". Careful here. You want to click on "End of Day", upper left. Almost there. Scroll all the way down to the bottom, until you find "Bullish Percent Indices". Eureka!

I use the BPSPX very often to confirm if the market is Bullish or Bearish.  A column of X's crossing above the 30% level  (Green Line) is confirming to Bullish. 

Crossing above the 70% level (Red Line) is a caution zone for me, as the market is now "over baked" & may be set for a reversal.

In the Chart Header, it even indicates the Status of the market and when it began the indicated level. 

Note on 2/18/2016, "Bull Confirmed" , when many are running around screaming "the sky is falling".  NO Guessing here.

This is a great tool for beginning your analysis for the over all markets. Then to break down the "Hot" and "Cold" Sectors for you individual stock analysis.

"Bottom Fishing"? Look for Sectors ready to cross the 30% level in a column of X's. Keep it simple.

Flight to Safety - Utilities

Happy Valentine's Day to all. Enjoy the long weekend!

I will keep this short and to the point. Utilities remains an Indicator of "Flight to Safety". I believe  recent moves in GOLD will confirm this.

Last 21 Days of Sectors vs. SPX:

Note how Utilities are UP almost 7% and demonstrating strong Relative Strength vs. the SPX. Even more important notice the weakness in Financials. A Bull market requires strong Financials.

$XLU looks poised for a pullback here & that offers opportunity. Worth tracking price action here.

Want some exposure to Utilities?

RYU
FXU
XLU
VPU
UPW
IDU
JXI
PUI
IPU
FUTY

Cheers.

First Three Weeks of 2016

The "First Three Weeks of 2016" have been very difficult for many stock investors. Please note "investors" is key. Many 401k's, IRA's and buy and hold types etc. are getting torched by this current BEAR Market. Many sleepless nights.

"Traders" are much more flexible and should be able to use this volatility to their advantage and to manage risk.

On 1/1/2016, I posted this Tweet:

Having a plan and trading that plan. Sticking to it especially if it running in the direction you anticipated is very satisfying and profitable.

Simply following a short tern Sector Rotation can keep you clear of "Head Winds". The one above is simply a (14)  Day Sector Relative Strength offered for FREE by Stockcharts.com. It's worth checking out regularly as a Tool. You can adjust the slider in lower right corner for the time frame you would like to review.

In the example above the "Flight to Safety" was crystal clear by the spike in Utilities. Time to trim profits and or set tighter STOPS. Not the "mental stop" B.S. either. A hard stop that you determine
is your risk tolerance or a technical level.

Now, it's a great time to keep close tabs on the Sector Rotation for "Risk On" and it will get here eventually. Be ready for it.

Trade smart and keep it simple.

Have a nice weekend  and happy MLK Day on Monday.

Thank you for your support!

Cheers.

Happy New Year in 2016

IWM may be a signal for the overall markets to begin 2016. It's been said "Small Caps Will Lead". We shall see.

I suggest tracking IWM & XLF (Financials early this year for better clues.

Currently, I have joined the $TZA Party early and will ride it as long as the IWM continues to break down at Resistance. Please review chart posted below.

Happy New Year 2016! Health and prosperity to all traders and investor.

$IWM Daily Chart: (Thank you TradingView for the chart)